The Big 5 Natural Causes of Global Warming- Part 1: Varying Atlantic Water Transport — Watts Up With That?

The Big 5 natural climate dynamics – when considered together- offer a far better explanation of both regional climate trends and the statistical global warming trend since the end of the little ice age.

The Big 5 Natural Causes of Global Warming- Part 1: Varying Atlantic Water Transport — Watts Up With That?

Climate Change and CO2

Why CO2 is not the cause of climate change


Does Carbon Dioxide cause climate change?

a) Carbon dioxide is a minor player in any further warming. It is uniformly distributed in the atmosphere but only absorbs infrared (heat) in a very narrow wavelength range. The CO2 wavelength range is outside the range of most of the solar radiance that penetrates our atmosphere. It falls roughly inside the wavelength range of temperatures re-radiated when solar radiation heats the earth’s surface. The atmospheric CO2 already absorbs almost all of the radiation that it can in that range. Most of the warming effect of CO2 has already occurred in the past and is one of the reasons our planet is not a frozen wasteland. Any increase in CO2 will have a very minor effect. With CO2 absorption near saturation, almost all of the re-radiated heat in that wavelength range is already being trapped, so it can have little or no effect on future increases in temperature or supposed forcing of water vapor. With CO2 essentially eliminated as a source, any increases in temperature must be from some other source.

Absorption of gases – note narrow CO2 bands & broad water bands.


Source: Robert A. Rohde (Dragons flight at English Wikipedia) – This figure was created by Robert A. Rohde from published data and is part of the Global Warming Art project.

This figure requires a bit of explaining. The top spectrum shows the wavelengths at which the atmosphere transmits light and heat as well as the “black body” idealized curves for no absorption. It is a little misleading because the data is not based on actual solar and earth data. It is based on two experimental heat sources, one centered at 5525 K (5252o C or 9485o F), the approximate temperature of solar radiation, and one centered in the range of 210 to 310 K (-63o C to 36.8o C or -82oF to 98o F), the approximate temperature range of re-radiated heat from the earth. In reality solar radiation power, (Watts/m2/micron), shown in red, is six million times as strong as the power of re-radiated heat from the earth, shown in blue.

The other spectra are absorption[1] spectra. The top one shows the relative percent absorption by total atmospheric gases at various wavelengths, (note that this spectrum is practically the inverse of the transmission spectrum above it), and the spectra below that show the absorption wavelength ranges of individual atmospheric gases, but not the relative strength of that absorption in reality. As experimental, not real atmospheric, data they can only tell us the wavelength ranges of the absorption, not their relative strengths.

Note that CO2 absorbs in the 15 micron range[2], which is within both the range of re-radiated heat and the strong absorption by water vapor of which the CO2 peak forms a mere shoulder. This is used to claim forcing of water vapor by CO2, without regard to the near-saturation level of CO2. Lesser CO2 peaks in the 2.7 and 4.3 micron ranges also only contribute in a minor way, the first is completely covered by a water vapor absorption peak and the second forms a shoulder in another water vapor peak. These minor peaks occur in a region where both solar radiation and re-radiation are minimized. Methane and nitrous oxide are also shown to be minor players, having narrow absorption ranges and low concentrations. Note too that ozone blocks most of the ultraviolet light from the sun.

b.) Water is by far the most important greenhouse gas/liquid in the form of vapor, high and low altitude clouds, rain and snow, which both absorb and reflect sunlight and re-radiated heat from the surface. Water vapor is not uniformly distributed in the atmosphere, being concentrated near the earth, but strongly absorbs heat in a wide range of wavelengths. More heat means more water vapor evaporating from the oceans. Sounds pretty scary, doesn’t it? Contrary to what is assumed by climate modelers, who use this to claim forcing by CO2, the extra vapor doesn’t remain as vapor. It quickly forms low altitude clouds that strongly reflect in-coming sunlight and heat into space. Any re-radiated heat from the surface that may be trapped by clouds is a small fraction compared to the in-coming solar radiation, so blocking solar radiance has a net cooling effect that overwhelms any increases in trapped re-radiation. High altitude clouds tend to trap heat from being re-radiated into space, but have little effect because the increases in cloud cover due to warming are mostly in low altitude clouds.

[1] Transmission and Absorption are inversely related by the formula A = 1/log T.

[2] The horizontal axis is a log scale in microns so that the 1 to 10 range is in units of 1 and the 10 to 70 range is in tens.

NOTE: Republished from July 22, 2015 Post (media link broken and here restored)

King Coal is Dead. Long Live the King! — Science Matters

You’ve heard the pronouncements:  „Coal Is Dead and Oil Is Next.“  „Glasgow is the Death Knell for the Coal Industry“ (Boris Johnson).  „Coal is declining sharply, as financiers and insurance companies abandon the industry“ (Yale360) „Parties to accelerate efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power“ (COP26 agreement). The unspoken reality is the opposite:  Demonizing […]

King Coal is Dead. Long Live the King! — Science Matters

Climate’s Real Existential Crisis —

My latest in the Washington Examiner. As the international climate alarmism movement descends on Glasgow, Scotland, for the 26th annual United National climate conference, the world is plunging into its worst energy crisis since the 1970s. 26 more words

Climate’s Real Existential Crisis —

Climate Lobby Crushed Debate — Science Matters

Tim Black writes at Spiked How the climate lobby crushed debate.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images. Anyone who dissents from stringent climate policies will be branded an enemy of The Science. COP26 is an extravaganza of ideological conformity. From the 30,000 delegates and heads of state sequestered in the ‘blue zone’ […]

Climate Lobby Crushed Debate — Science Matters

‘Gaia’ scientist James Lovelock: I was ‘alarmist’ about climate change — Watts Up With That?

“The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened,” Lovelock said.

‘Gaia’ scientist James Lovelock: I was ‘alarmist’ about climate change — Watts Up With That?

Unmasking Biden’s Climate Shakedown

Science Matters


At Spectator, Real Jean Isaac explains How to End Biden’s Fake Climate Apocalypse.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and images.

If there’s no pushback against the Left, we’ll see a dramatic drop in our standard of living.

With the wave of executive orders and legislation coming from the Biden administration, and the cultural antics of his woke supporters, Biden’s war on fossil fuels has received insufficient attention. Yet energy is the lifeblood of our economy, and making traditional energy sources vastly more expensive is the single most destructive aspect of Biden’s policies. If this country does not successfully mobilize against these policies, the vast majority will experience a dramatic drop in their standard of living.

mrz012921dbp20210129124515Supposedly the assault on fossil fuels — via regulation; cancellation of pipelines; concocting a huge, wholly imaginary “social cost of carbon”; taxes; and solar and wind mandates — is necessary to save…

View original post 1,462 more words

When Dr. Will Happer speaks, people listen —

When Dr. Will Happer speaks, people listen This speech was given at a Hillsdale College National Leadership Seminar on February 19, 2021, in Phoenix, Arizona. Superforest,Climate Change via Watts Up With That?

When Dr. Will Happer speaks, people listen —

Shared from Watts Up With That blog at

The Good News On Climate — NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood     As I watch the snow blow past my window, it’s hard not to scoff at the idea of a ‘climate emergency’. However, I’m probably in a minority. The idea that we are currently experiencing a dangerous deterioration in our weather has been pushed so hard, and for so long, that […]

The Good News On Climate — NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT