We’ve been discussing the sudden rise in UK and European temperatures in the 1990s, and I was reminded about a study undertaken by Clive Best and Euan Mearns looking at the role of cloud cover four years ago:
Clouds have a net average cooling effect on the earth’s climate. Climate models assume that changes in cloud cover are a feedback response to CO2 warming. Is this assumption valid? Following a study with Euan Mearns showing a strong correlation in UK temperatures with clouds, we looked at the global effects of clouds by developing a combined cloud and CO2 forcing model to sudy how variations in both cloud cover  and CO2  data affect global temperature anomalies between 1983 and 2008. The model as described below gives a good fit to HADCRUT4 data with a Transient Climate Response (TCR )= 1.6±0.3°C. The 17-year hiatus in…
Manmade global warming, AGW or climate change is said to be an established fact, and the consequences are dire unless global governments act now to mitigate its effects. The polar ice caps and glaciers will melt away; the oceans will rise and drown coastal and island regions; droughts, floods, storms and temperatures will all increase and millions, dare I say billions, will die. But is any of it true, is it science and can we do anything about it? The answer to these questions is NO, maybe or probably not.
While there has been general warming since the Little Ice Age of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries overlain with periods of lesser heating and cooling, the question remains is the change good or bad? Is it unusually rapid now and will these alleged trends continue into the future? Is it extreme enough to cause the dire effects predicted? Should global governments act now to prevent the predicted disastrous consequences and can we really do anything about it? It is important to know if these modeled projections are reliable predictions and if real, is real science involved in any meaningful way. What do we really know about it? Here is a list of claims that I will be examining individually in future posts.
What is claimed:
Global warming and/or climate change are established facts.
Manmade carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main cause of global warming
Carbon dioxide is important because it has a forcing effect on other factors such as water vapor
Manmade CO2 levels have been rising rapidly due to increased industrialization and populations since the 1950s.
Developed countries are to blame for increased manmade carbon dioxide because they use most of the fossil fuels.
Temperatures are hotter now than they have been in the last 100,000 years
Temperatures have risen faster in recent years than ever before
The world is in danger of catastrophic consequences such as sea level rise, growing deserts, worse storms, droughts and floods
The oceans are becoming more acidic due to the increased CO2, so that corals and other animals are being harmed or killed
World governments must take drastic action now to prevent further warming
There is a consensus among climate scientists on the causes and dire consequences of global warming.
Money given to the UN for climate change will be used to help develop impoverished countries.
Examining the Claims
Let’s look at each of these claims one at a time. Many of the claims are only partially true or are false. As we will be analyzing these claims, I will be including many charts of real data to show the truth and to refute the claim by warmists (proponents of AGW) that skeptics have no data. Many of the charts are from a review article, “Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide,” circulated by the Petition Project. All of the data in this report is from peer reviewed scientific literature cited at the end of the article in 132 references.
Claim 1: Global warming and/or climate change are established facts.
Truth: This is mostly true but implications are false. Climate is always changing. The climate is a chaotic system that is poorly understood, involving many important factors. The straw man argument of the “Warmists” that “Deniers” deny any climate change is a false premise. The world has been recovering from the Little Ice Age since the eighteenth century. There was a period of cooling from the 1940s through the 1970s, leading modelers to predict a coming ice age. For example, James Hansen of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) was responsible for modeling and alarming Congress and others about global cooling in the 1970s and global warming beginning in 1988 to the present.
Who is James Hansen ?
He was the head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Earth Sciences Division, 1981-2013. He holds a BA in mathematics and physics, a MS in astronomy and a PhD in physics, not climatology. His major work before becoming the climate change scare monger was in modeling the atmosphere of Venus and the effect of its atmospheric gases and aerosols on warming. The atmosphere of Venus is very different from Earth’s atmosphere, being composed largely of carbon dioxide with sulfuric acid clouds. It also does not have the magnetic field that protects earth from much of the solar wind’s energy and cosmic rays.
He assumed that aerosols in the atmosphere of Venus trap heat to produce the very high temperatures through a run-away greenhouse effect without considering the solar wind and cosmic ray contributions. He has used the models for Venus to model our own atmosphere by making certain assumptions. He has also massaged United States climate data, which showed no net warming in the twentieth century, to show warming where the original data did not. He erased the 1930’s as the warmest period of the century, with 1934 as the warmest of all. He “adjusted” the data to show continued warming in line with the previously “adjusted” global temperature record.
Recent increases have been attributed by AGW proponents to Carbon Dioxide (CO2) produced by humans in the form of both increased burning of fossil fuels and increased populations. There are actually many complex reasons for the recent trend of increased temperatures that are not fully understood. The role of carbon dioxide has been exaggerated and the role of other factors such as solar activity, clouds and ocean circulation cycles have been dismissed, de-emphasized or otherwise diminished. Presently, (2016) there has been no net warming since 1998 and a possible cooling since 2005. We are entering a solar quiet period that usually accompanies cooling trends. See next blog post for a timeline of global warming and cooling alarms and historical notes about the origins of the CO2 theory of global warming.